Appreciation in four towns from our MLS data, the demand and permit figures, and the rental math at Bend's median against HUD's 2026 fair market rent. It does not cash flow.
Is Central Oregon a good real estate investment? The answer depends on which kind of return you mean. As a place to own a home for a decade, the record is strong. As a rental that pays its own mortgage, Bend does not pencil at today's prices and rates, and the numbers below show why. Every figure is dated and sourced, and the ones that move are on the live market pages.
Appreciation: the decade in four towns
From our MLS database, taking the median of the twelve monthly closed-sale medians for each year, read September 7, 2026:
- Bend: $397,800 in 2017 to $747,500 in 2025, about 8.2% a year compounded.
- Redmond: $279,200 to $525,000, about 8.2% a year.
- Sisters: $380,755 to $705,000, about 8.0% a year.
- Prineville: $199,900 to $415,000, about 9.6% a year.
Most of that gain arrived in 2020 through 2022. Bend's annual figure was lower in 2024 than 2023 and is running below 2025 through the first nine months of 2026. Anyone projecting the decade's rate forward is projecting the pandemic. We do not.
Demand: the people and the permits
Portland State University certified Bend's population at 107,079 on July 1, 2025, up from a 2020 census base of 99,312. Against that, the Census Bureau's Building Permits Survey shows the City of Bend authorized 646 new single-family units in 2025 and Deschutes County's permitting jurisdictions authorized 1,166. Oregon's Housing Needs Analysis, December 2025, sets Bend's twenty-year target at 34,116 units. Demand has outrun supply for a decade, and the state has now written that gap into a target. Our growth plan guide covers what the city is doing about it.
Long-term rental: the math at the median
Take Bend's ninety-day median single-family sale of $733,000 as of September 7, 2026. With 20% down and a $586,400 loan at Freddie Mac's 6.71% for the week of September 3, principal and interest run $3,788 a month. Property tax at the Department of Revenue's fiscal 2025-26 average effective rate for Deschutes County, about 0.698% of market value, adds $426. Insurance, management, maintenance, and vacancy come on top. Against that, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development's fiscal 2026 fair market rent for a three-bedroom in the Bend-Redmond area is $2,481. The mortgage and tax alone exceed the rent by $1,733 a month before any other cost. A long-term rental bought at the median with 20% down loses money every month and is a bet on appreciation, not income. Our investment page says the same thing with live numbers, and it shows where in the region the gap is smaller.
Oregon also caps rent increases on long-term tenancies at 9.5% for 2026 under ORS 90.323, with homes under 15 years old exempt, so the path to closing that gap by raising rent is regulated.
Short-term rental
A short-term rental can gross more than a long-term lease, and it is where most Central Oregon investment interest goes. Bend and Deschutes County both permit and cap short-term rentals, the rules differ by zone and by whether the owner lives on site, and the permits in the most popular areas are the constraint. Vacation rental rules in Bend and Deschutes County covers the current rules. We do not publish gross revenue figures for short-term rentals because we do not have a verified source for them, and the operators who do publish them are selling something.
The risks that are specific to here
Wildfire, and the insurance that comes with it. Carriers price it address by address, the Oregon FAIR Plan is the backstop with a $600,000 dwelling cap, and new homes now carry the R327 wildfire code. Our insurance guide covers it. Water, for rural property on a well. Regulation, on short-term rentals and on rent increases. And concentration: the region's economy is tourism, health care, and a growing remote-worker base, and the last two carry the market when the first one is quiet.
Where the math is closer
Lower-priced towns with rents near Bend's. HUD's fair market rent is set for the Bend-Redmond metro area as a whole, so a three-bedroom in Redmond at that rent against Redmond's ninety-day median of $499,000 carries a smaller gap than the same rent against Bend's median. Prineville and La Pine sit lower still on price, with a longer drive. Tax rules shape the rest, and second home versus investment property walks the IRS tests and the 2026 thresholds.
Questions
Has Central Oregon real estate appreciated?
Yes. The median of Bend's monthly closed-sale medians rose from $397,800 in 2017 to $747,500 in 2025, about 8.2% a year compounded, per our MLS database, with most of the gain in 2020 through 2022 and a sideways run since.
Does a Bend rental cash flow?
Not at the median with 20% down. Principal, interest, and property tax on Bend's $733,000 ninety-day median at 6.71% run about $4,214 a month against HUD's 2026 fair market rent of $2,481 for a three-bedroom, before insurance, management, maintenance, and vacancy.
Is a short-term rental a better investment in Bend?
It can gross more, and it is permit-limited and zone-dependent under Bend and Deschutes County rules. We do not publish short-term rental revenue figures because we have no verified source for them.
Can I raise the rent to close the gap?
Only within Oregon's cap, 9.5% for 2026 on long-term tenancies under ORS 90.323, unless the home is less than 15 years from its first certificate of occupancy.
Where in Central Oregon does an investment pencil better?
Where the price is lower against a similar rent: Redmond first, then Prineville and La Pine. The investment page runs the live comparison.
Next step
The investment page runs the numbers live. Book a call and we will run them on a specific property with your lender and your accountant.
Matt RyanOwner & Principal Broker at Ryan Realty.
