In 2021, Bend set itself a concrete target: approve 1,000 affordable housing units by the end of 2023. It was an ambitious goal for a city where housing costs rank among the highest in Oregon and where the gap between what people earn and what housing costs has been widening for more than a decade. As we approach the deadline, the city is close to that number, with nearly 900 units expected to be built by year-end. But the numbers tell a more complicated story than a simple progress report might suggest.
The Goal and the Context
When Bend’s city leaders set the 1,000-unit target, it was partly an acknowledgment that previous affordable housing efforts hadn’t matched the scale of the problem. Bend’s population has grown rapidly, driven by in-migration from the Portland metro area, California, and other expensive markets. Many of the people moving here can outbid local workers for housing, pushing prices further out of reach for teachers, firefighters, restaurant workers, and other essential community members.
“Affordable housing” in this context means units restricted to households earning at or below specified percentages of the Area Median Income (AMI). These are homes where rents or sale prices are capped by covenant, ensuring they remain accessible to moderate and lower-income residents.
Where the Numbers Stand
As of October 2023, the city has approved projects that will deliver close to 900 affordable units. Some are complete and occupied. Others are under construction. A portion exists only as approved plans that haven’t broken ground. The distinction matters because an approved unit is not the same as a roof over someone’s head.
The pipeline includes a mix of project types: apartment complexes developed by affordable housing nonprofits, mixed-income developments with affordable components, and some smaller-scale projects utilizing middle housing allowances. The geographic distribution has concentrated in several corridors, particularly along Highway 97 and in southeast Bend, where land costs are somewhat lower.
The Cost Problem
Here is where the honest assessment gets complicated. Development costs in Bend have roughly doubled since 2019, reaching approximately $300 per square foot for residential construction. That number includes hard costs (materials, labor), soft costs (permitting, engineering, architecture), and infrastructure fees (system development charges). When your baseline cost to build anything is $300 per square foot, building “affordable” housing requires substantial subsidies, tax credits, or donated land. Otherwise the math simply doesn’t work.
The city has deployed several tools to support affordable development: fee waivers, density bonuses, land donations, and partnerships with state and federal funding programs like Low-Income Housing Tax Credits (LIHTC). Each tool helps, but none eliminates the fundamental tension between construction costs and affordable price points.
What Has Been Built
Some of the completed projects are worth highlighting:
- Multi-family rental developments offering units at 60% AMI, meaning a household earning roughly $50,000 could qualify
- Partnerships between the city and nonprofit developers like Housing Works and Habitat for Humanity
- Mixed-income projects where market-rate units cross-subsidize affordable ones
- Scattered-site developments that integrate affordable housing into existing neighborhoods rather than concentrating it
These projects represent real progress. People are living in homes they can afford because of the policy decisions and development work behind these numbers.
What the Gap Means
Falling short of 1,000 units isn’t a failure of effort; it’s a reflection of the difficulty of building affordable housing in a high-cost market. Every project faces the same headwinds: rising material costs, labor shortages, lengthy permitting timelines, and the complex financing structures required to make the numbers pencil out.
The gap between 900 and 1,000 units is less important than what happens next. If the city maintains its commitment and the policy framework that supports affordable development, the pipeline will continue to produce results. If attention shifts, the pipeline stalls quickly because affordable housing doesn’t get built by market forces alone.
What This Means for the Market
For buyers searching for homes in Central Oregon, the affordable housing pipeline has a modest but real effect on the overall market. Every affordable unit that gets built is one household that doesn’t compete in the open market for a market-rate home, which slightly reduces demand pressure on the homes you’re looking at.
For homeowners, affordable housing development in your community is often met with concern about property values. The research is clear on this point: well-designed, well-managed affordable housing does not reduce surrounding property values. Poorly maintained housing of any type does. The affordable projects being built in Bend are meeting quality standards that equal or exceed many market-rate developments.
Lessons for Future Goals
The 1,000-unit initiative offers several lessons for future affordable housing efforts in Bend and across Central Oregon:
Goals need funding commitments attached. A target without dedicated funding is an aspiration. The projects that moved from approval to construction were the ones with financing packages in place, including Low-Income Housing Tax Credits, state grants, and local fee waivers. Future goals should be paired with specific funding strategies.
Speed of approvals matters. Every month of delay in the approval process adds cost through carrying charges on land, expired material quotes, and changing labor market conditions. Streamlining the approval process for projects that meet affordable housing criteria would help convert approvals to construction faster.
Partnerships between public, private, and nonprofit sectors produce results. The most successful projects in the pipeline involve collaboration between the city, nonprofit housing developers, and sometimes private builders. Building more of these partnerships is essential for scaling production.
Land is the scarcest resource. Several potential affordable projects were delayed or abandoned because suitable land within the Urban Growth Boundary was either too expensive or unavailable. The city’s ability to contribute land, through surplus property sales at below-market rates, is one of its most powerful tools.
Looking Forward
The 1,000-unit goal was always a starting point, not a finish line. Bend’s housing affordability challenge will require sustained effort over many years, including continued policy support, creative financing, and honest conversations about growth, density, and what kind of community we want to be.
The actionable takeaway: if you’re interested in how affordable housing development affects your neighborhood or your home’s value, get informed and get involved. City Council discussions, planning commission meetings, and neighborhood association forums are where these decisions take shape. Check our housing market section for data on how these trends play out across Central Oregon, and talk to our team if you have questions about how local policy changes affect your real estate decisions.