A March 2026 Bend Bulletin editorial stated what many in the planning community have known for some time: “Bend must change its housing policies or state will.” The editorial was responding to the launch of technical work supporting Bend’s next Comprehensive Plan update, which must plan for approximately 34,000 new housing units over the next 20 years. Community engagement is expected later in 2026, with a final City Council vote projected for 2029. The city also held an infrastructure open house on March 26, 2026, signaling the practical realities of serving that growth. This planning process will be the most consequential set of land use decisions Bend has made in a generation.
Why the State Is Involved
Oregon’s land use planning system gives cities substantial latitude in how they plan for growth, but it also sets minimum requirements. If a city fails to adequately plan for projected housing need, the state, through the Department of Land Conservation and Development, has tools to compel action. These range from requiring plan amendments to, in extreme cases, stepping in directly.
The Bulletin editorial’s point was straightforward: Bend can proactively shape how it accommodates 34,000 new units, or it can resist and have the state impose solutions. The proactive path gives the community far more control over outcomes.
What 34,000 Units Looks Like
To put the number in perspective: Bend currently has approximately 42,000 housing units. Adding 34,000 more over 20 years would increase the city’s housing stock by roughly 80%. That’s an average of 1,700 new units per year, well above the 800 to 1,500 units Bend has typically permitted annually.
Roughly one-third of those units, approximately 11,000 homes, need to be affordable at 60% of Area Median Income or below. Building 550 affordable units per year would require a massive scaling of programs that have historically delivered far fewer.
These aren’t aspirational goals; they’re state-mandated projections based on population forecasts and housing needs analysis. The city doesn’t get to decide whether to accommodate this growth. It has to. The choices available are about where and how.
The Technical Work Beginning Now
The technical studies launching in early 2026 form the analytical foundation for the Comprehensive Plan update:
- Population forecasts: How many people will live in Bend in 20 years, based on demographic trends, migration patterns, and economic projections
- Housing needs analysis: What types and prices of housing are needed, broken down by income level, household size, and demographic group
- Buildable lands inventory: How much developable land exists within the current UGB, accounting for constraints like slopes, wetlands, infrastructure limitations, and existing development
- Infrastructure capacity assessment: Can existing water, sewer, transportation, and school systems serve 34,000 more units, or what investments are needed to expand capacity
These studies will produce data that shapes every subsequent decision. The buildable lands inventory is particularly important: if the inventory shows insufficient land within the current UGB to accommodate 34,000 units at appropriate densities, the city will face a choice between increasing allowed density within existing boundaries and expanding the UGB.
What This Means for Existing Homeowners
If you own a home in Bend, this planning process will affect your property and your neighborhood. Several scenarios are worth understanding:
Increased density allowances. Some neighborhoods may see zoning changes that allow higher density than currently permitted. If you live near a commercial corridor, transit route, or designated mixed-use area, the plan could allow more housing units per lot than your current zoning provides. This could increase your lot’s value (a developer might pay a premium for the added development potential) while changing the character of the surrounding area.
Infrastructure investments. The March 26 infrastructure open house signaled that the city recognizes serving 34,000 new units requires significant infrastructure investment. For homeowners, this means watching which areas receive infrastructure upgrades, as these investments typically correlate with increased development activity and property value support.
Property value implications. The long-term effect of accommodating growth on property values is generally positive. A growing, well-planned city tends to support stronger property values than a stagnant one. However, the short-term effects depend on specific zoning changes, infrastructure investments, and the quality of development in your area.
What This Means for Buyers
For people looking to buy in Bend over the next several years, the growth plan creates both opportunity and uncertainty:
More housing options over time. If the plan succeeds in facilitating 34,000 new units, the housing market will offer more choices at more price points. Middle housing, townhomes, condominiums, and mixed-use residential options will become more prevalent.
Affordable housing expansion. The affordable housing component means more options for households earning below the area median income. Projects like Caldera Ranch with its 254 affordable units are early examples of what the plan calls for at a much larger scale.
Location decisions matter more. As the plan determines where development occurs, buying in areas designated for growth means living through construction and change but potentially benefiting from new amenities and infrastructure. Buying in areas planned for minimal change offers stability but may miss out on the investment and improvement that comes with growth areas.
The Infrastructure Question
The infrastructure open house on March 26 highlighted a reality that often gets lost in zoning and policy discussions: you can’t serve 34,000 new homes without massive infrastructure investment. Water supply, sewer capacity, road networks, parks, and schools all need to scale.
The city’s tiered SDC system will generate some of the revenue needed, but SDCs alone won’t cover the full cost. Bond measures, utility rate adjustments, state and federal grants, and developer contributions will all be part of the funding picture. How these costs are shared between new development and existing ratepayers is one of the most consequential financial questions the plan must address.
The Community Engagement Process
Community engagement is scheduled to begin later in 2026. This is your opportunity to influence decisions that will shape Bend for the next 20 years. Participating in open houses, workshops, online surveys, and public hearings is the most effective way to ensure the plan reflects community priorities.
Areas where community input will be most impactful include:
- Where should new density be concentrated versus where should existing character be preserved?
- What types of housing are most needed and most acceptable to existing neighborhoods?
- How should infrastructure investments be prioritized?
- What trade-offs are acceptable between housing affordability and other community values?
The Bottom Line
Bend is going to grow. The question is not whether 34,000 new housing units will be planned for, but how and where. The planning process beginning now will determine whether that growth enhances the city or diminishes it. As homeowners, buyers, and community members, the most productive thing any of us can do is engage with the process, understand the trade-offs, and advocate for outcomes that balance growth with the qualities that make Bend worth living in.
Follow our housing market section for ongoing analysis of how the growth plan affects real estate in Central Oregon. Our team is here to help you make informed decisions in a market that is being actively shaped by the policies being debated right now.