Oregon’s land use planning system requires cities to periodically update their Comprehensive Plans, including projections for how much housing will be needed over the next 20 years. For Bend, the numbers are significant: state analysis indicates the city needs to plan for approximately 34,000 new housing units, with roughly one-third designated as affordable at 60% of Area Median Income or below. The technical work supporting this planning effort begins in early 2026, with community engagement expected later that year and a final City Council vote projected for 2029. This is not a theoretical exercise. The decisions made through this process will shape where and how Bend grows for the next generation.
What the Numbers Mean
Thirty-four thousand new housing units over 20 years works out to roughly 1,700 units per year. For context, Bend has typically permitted between 800 and 1,500 residential units annually in recent years, depending on market conditions. Meeting the state’s projection would require a sustained increase in housing production above recent norms.
The affordable housing component, approximately 11,000 units at 60% AMI or below, is even more challenging. Affordable housing requires subsidies, partnerships, and creative financing that market-rate housing does not. Building 550 affordable units per year when the city’s total recent affordable production has been in the hundreds annually represents a significant scaling challenge.
How the Comprehensive Plan Works
Oregon’s land use system uses 20-year forecasts to determine how much land each city needs within its Urban Growth Boundary. The Comprehensive Plan is the document that translates state requirements into local policy. It addresses:
- How much land is needed for housing, commercial, industrial, and public uses
- Where development should occur within the UGB
- What types of housing should be built (single-family, multi-family, middle housing)
- Infrastructure requirements for water, sewer, transportation, parks, and schools
- Density and zoning standards that implement the plan’s goals
The technical work beginning in 2026 involves population forecasts, housing needs analyses, buildable lands inventories, and infrastructure capacity studies. This data drives the planning decisions. Community engagement provides public input on priorities, values, and trade-offs.
Implications for Existing Neighborhoods
One of the most consequential aspects of the 20-year plan is how it affects existing neighborhoods. Accommodating 34,000 new units will require some combination of:
Building on vacant land within the UGB. Bend still has vacant buildable land, but it’s increasingly limited and often constrained by infrastructure availability, environmental features, or challenging topography.
Increasing density in existing neighborhoods. Policies like HB 2001’s middle housing allowances and expanded ADU rules are already enabling more housing on existing lots. The comprehensive plan could go further, potentially increasing allowed densities in areas near transit and commercial corridors.
Expanding the UGB. The SB 1537 expansion adds up to 100 acres, but the 20-year plan may identify a need for additional land beyond what SB 1537 provides. Traditional UGB expansions are complex and contentious, but they may be necessary to accommodate the full projected need.
For homeowners in established neighborhoods, this means the area around you will likely evolve over the next 20 years. The character of that evolution, whether it’s gradual and compatible or disruptive, depends heavily on the planning decisions made now.
Infrastructure Implications
Thirty-four thousand new units require infrastructure. Water supply, treatment, and distribution systems must be expanded. Sewer collection and treatment capacity must increase. Roads must accommodate more vehicles, or the city must invest in alternatives like transit, bike infrastructure, and pedestrian connections. Parks and schools must serve a larger population.
The city’s tiered SDC system is designed to generate revenue for infrastructure, but SDCs alone won’t cover the full cost of serving 34,000 new units. The Comprehensive Plan process will need to address how infrastructure gets funded, which likely involves some combination of SDCs, bond measures, state and federal grants, and developer contributions.
What This Means for Home Values
The relationship between growth planning and home values is complex. Here is the honest analysis:
Continued population growth supports property values. Demand for housing in Bend remains strong, driven by quality of life, outdoor recreation, and relative affordability compared to coastal markets. As long as people want to live here, property values have fundamental support.
Increased supply moderates appreciation. If Bend successfully builds 34,000 units over 20 years, home price appreciation will likely be more moderate than in a supply-constrained scenario. This is not a bad thing for existing homeowners; moderate, sustainable appreciation is healthier than the volatile price swings of boom-bust cycles.
Location within the plan matters. Properties in areas designated for higher density or significant new development may see different value trajectories than properties in areas planned for minimal change. Understanding where your property sits in the comprehensive plan is valuable information for long-term ownership decisions.
The Timeline
- Early 2026: Technical work begins (population forecasts, housing needs analysis, buildable lands inventory)
- Late 2026: Community engagement process launches
- 2027-2028: Draft plan development, public review, and revisions
- 2029: Expected final City Council vote on adopted plan
This timeline means there are multiple opportunities for public participation. The decisions made during this process will affect property values, neighborhood character, and quality of life for decades. If you own property in Bend, investing time in understanding and participating in the planning process is one of the highest-value activities available to you.
The Housing Mix Question
One of the most consequential decisions in the planning process will be the assumed housing mix. The 34,000-unit projection isn’t 34,000 single-family homes. The mix will include single-family detached homes, townhouses, duplexes, triplexes, apartments, cottage clusters, and potentially new housing types. How that mix is distributed across the city determines both the character of neighborhoods and the range of price points available to buyers.
Current trends suggest the mix will include a significantly higher proportion of attached and multi-family housing than past plans assumed. The cost of land and construction makes single-family detached homes on standard-size lots economically unviable for a large portion of the market. Middle housing, small apartment buildings, and mixed-use developments are increasingly necessary to serve the full range of housing needs.
For homeowners, this means your neighborhood’s housing mix will likely become more diverse over the next 20 years, regardless of where you live. Understanding and participating in the decisions about how that diversity is managed is in your direct interest.
Getting Informed and Involved
Start by familiarizing yourself with the current Comprehensive Plan and the city’s planning department communications. Attend public meetings when the engagement process begins. Pay attention to the housing market data that informs planning decisions. And talk to our team if you want to understand how the 20-year plan might affect your property or your plans to buy or sell in Central Oregon.