Two months into 2026, the Caldera Ranch development continues its journey through the regulatory process that will determine whether 716 new homes become reality in southeast Bend. The application for UGB Amendment and Comprehensive Plan amendment is currently under staff review, the first of several approvals needed before construction can begin. For anyone tracking this project, whether as a potential buyer, an SE Bend resident, or someone interested in how Bend’s housing supply evolves, here is where things stand and what comes next.
Current Status
Following the City Council’s 4-2 vote in December 2024 to select Caldera Ranch for the SB 1537 Urban Growth Boundary expansion, the formal application process began. The UGB Amendment and Comprehensive Plan amendment application has been submitted and is now under staff review. This is a technical review where city planning staff evaluate the application against state and local requirements, identify any deficiencies or questions, and prepare a staff report for subsequent public hearings.
After staff review, the application will proceed to the Department of Land Conservation and Development (DLCD) for state-level review. DLCD’s role is to ensure the UGB expansion complies with Oregon’s land use planning framework, including the SB 1537 requirements for affordable housing and expedited process.
What Still Needs to Happen
The path from current status to construction involves several additional milestones:
- DLCD review and approval at the state level
- Master Plan approval covering the detailed site layout, phasing, open space, circulation, and infrastructure
- Annexation of the site into the City of Bend (currently outside city limits)
- Public comment periods at multiple stages, providing opportunities for community input
- Infrastructure design and construction for water, sewer, stormwater, and transportation connections
- Subdivision platting and building permits for individual phases
Each step involves review periods, potential for appeals, and coordination between multiple agencies. The project team’s target of beginning construction by summer 2027 assumes a relatively smooth path through these stages. Any step could introduce delays: contested public hearings, DLCD review comments requiring revisions, or infrastructure design challenges.
The Housing Plan Recap
For those who haven’t followed the project from the beginning, Caldera Ranch plans to deliver:
- 716 total housing units
- 35.5% affordable (254 units), exceeding SB 1537’s 30% minimum
- 192 units at 80% AMI (rental, approximately $83,750 household income)
- 38 units at 30% AMI (approximately $31,400, serving very low-income households)
- 14 affordable townhomes and 10 detached homes at 130% AMI (workforce homeownership)
- 10-year buildout across multiple phases
The affordable housing plan is one of the most ambitious components. The 38 units at 30% AMI are particularly challenging to deliver because the gap between what those households can pay and what construction costs is the widest. Financing these units typically requires layering multiple funding sources: Low-Income Housing Tax Credits, state and federal grants, city contributions, and nonprofit partnerships.
What This Means for SE Bend
Southeast Bend has been one of the fastest-growing parts of the city, with Caldera High School, new subdivisions, and commercial development transforming what was, not long ago, the city’s rural edge. Caldera Ranch will add another layer to this transformation.
For existing SE Bend residents, the timeline provides some clarity. Construction is at least 18 months away, and the 10-year buildout means the development’s impact will be phased rather than sudden. The first phases will likely include infrastructure and initial housing clusters, with subsequent phases delivered based on market conditions and affordable housing financing availability.
Traffic is a legitimate concern. Seven hundred sixteen new homes will generate significant vehicle trips, and the Knott Road corridor and connecting streets will bear much of the impact. The transportation analysis completed as part of the project review identifies needed improvements, but how those improvements are funded and timed will affect the experience for existing residents.
What Buyers Should Know
If you’re interested in purchasing at Caldera Ranch, patience is required. The market-rate homes (approximately 462 units) won’t be available until construction begins, and the first phase will offer a limited selection. Price points will be determined by construction costs and market conditions at the time of sale, making it impossible to predict exact pricing today.
For households interested in the affordable units, qualification criteria and application processes will be announced as the project advances. Income limits will be tied to the Area Median Income at the time of application, and the specific programs administering the affordable units will have their own eligibility and selection processes.
In the meantime, there are homes available now across Central Oregon at various price points. If your timeline is flexible, it may make sense to wait for Caldera Ranch’s inventory. If you need housing sooner, the existing market offers options that you can evaluate today.
The Broader Market Context
Caldera Ranch doesn’t exist in isolation. It’s one of several large development projects in various stages across Bend, including the Caraway development in NW Bend and ongoing infill and middle housing projects throughout the city. The cumulative effect of these developments, if they all proceed to completion, will meaningfully increase Bend’s housing supply over the next decade.
For the housing market overall, more supply is healthy. It provides more options for buyers, reduces the pressure that leads to bidding wars and rapid price escalation, and allows people to make housing decisions based on their actual needs rather than fear of being priced out. The challenge is that these projects take years to deliver, and the housing need is immediate.
Stay Informed
For Investors and Builders
If you’re a builder or investor watching Caldera Ranch, the project offers both opportunity and data points. The opportunity is obvious: 716 units represents a significant construction pipeline if you’re a subcontractor, supplier, or service provider. The data points are about what the market will bear in terms of pricing, absorption rate, and buyer preferences in SE Bend.
For investors considering Central Oregon residential development, Caldera Ranch’s pricing and absorption will signal how the broader market responds to new supply at scale. If the project absorbs well, it validates continued investment in the region. If absorption is slow, it may indicate that prices have reached a ceiling or that the specific location and product mix need adjustment.
We’ll continue tracking Caldera Ranch’s progress through the approval process and into construction. Public comment opportunities will be announced through the city’s planning department, and we encourage interested residents to participate. For questions about how Caldera Ranch and other development projects affect your real estate plans, our team is available for data-driven conversations.