The question of where Bend would use its one-time Urban Growth Boundary expansion opportunity has been answered. On December 4, 2024, Bend City Council voted 4-2 to select Caldera Ranch for the expansion under Senate Bill 1537. The site, located in southeast Bend adjacent to Knott Road and across from Caldera High School, will accommodate 716 total housing units with a significant affordable housing component. If the remaining approvals proceed on schedule, construction could begin as early as summer 2027, with a 10-year buildout timeline.
The Site and the Numbers
Caldera Ranch sits at the southeast edge of Bend, in an area that has seen substantial growth in recent years with the opening of Caldera High School and surrounding residential development. The site’s proximity to existing infrastructure, schools, and commercial services made it a strong candidate in the evaluation process.
The housing plan is notable for both its scale and its affordability commitment:
- 716 total housing units across the development
- 35.5% affordable (254 units), exceeding SB 1537’s 30% minimum requirement
- 192 rental units at 80% AMI (approximately $83,750 household income)
- 38 units at 30% AMI (approximately $31,400 household income, serving the lowest-income residents)
- 14 affordable townhomes at 130% AMI (approximately $136,110, workforce homeownership)
- 10 detached homes at 130% AMI (workforce homeownership)
The 38 units at 30% AMI are particularly significant. Housing at this income level is the hardest and most expensive to build, and it serves people who are most at risk of homelessness. Including these units in the plan demonstrates a commitment to addressing the full spectrum of housing need, not just the easier-to-serve moderate-income segment.
Why the Council Chose Caldera Ranch
The 4-2 vote reflects both the merits of the site and the inherent difficulty of UGB decisions. Every expansion site has supporters and opponents, and Caldera Ranch was no exception. The arguments that carried the day included:
Infrastructure proximity. The site is adjacent to existing water, sewer, and transportation infrastructure, reducing the cost and time required to extend services. This is a practical consideration with major financial implications: extending utilities to a remote site can add millions in costs that ultimately get passed to homebuyers.
School and commercial access. Caldera High School is literally across the road, and existing commercial services in SE Bend are nearby. For families and workers, this connectivity is a quality-of-life factor that makes the location viable for the affordable units that need convenient access to jobs, schools, and services.
The affordability commitment. At 35.5% affordable, Caldera Ranch exceeds the state’s 30% minimum by a meaningful margin. The mix of income levels, from 30% AMI to 130% AMI, addresses a broader range of housing need than the minimum requirement demands.
What Comes Next
The Council vote was a critical milestone, but it’s not the finish line. Several more steps must be completed before construction begins:
- UGB amendment and Comprehensive Plan amendment applications must be processed
- DLCD (Department of Land Conservation and Development) review at the state level
- Master Plan approval for the detailed site design
- Annexation into the City of Bend
- Public comment periods at multiple stages
- Infrastructure design and construction for roads, utilities, and stormwater
Each of these steps involves review periods, potential appeals, and coordination between multiple agencies. The summer 2027 construction target assumes a relatively smooth path through these stages. Delays at any point could push the timeline back.
What This Means for SE Bend Residents
If you live in southeast Bend, Caldera Ranch will change your part of town. Seven hundred sixteen new homes mean new neighbors, more traffic, and more demand on local services and schools. It also means more customers for local businesses, potential for new amenities, and increased housing options for people who work in SE Bend but currently commute from other areas.
The 10-year buildout timeline means the changes will be gradual rather than sudden. The first phase will likely include infrastructure and a portion of the homes, with subsequent phases delivered over the following years. The pace of construction will depend on market conditions, financing for the affordable components, and the developer’s phasing strategy.
For property values in the area, the effect is nuanced. Significant new housing supply in your immediate area can moderate price appreciation compared to areas without new supply. However, the infrastructure improvements, school proximity, and neighborhood development that come with a well-executed project can also enhance the desirability of the surrounding area.
What This Means for Buyers
If you’re in the market for a home in Bend, Caldera Ranch creates future inventory that doesn’t exist today. The market-rate homes (roughly 462 units) will add supply in southeast Bend at price points that will be determined by construction costs and market conditions at the time of sale. Given current trends, expect price points competitive with other new construction in the area.
The affordable units, at 254 homes, represent one of the largest single affordable housing commitments in Bend’s history. If you qualify based on income, these could be your pathway to homeownership in Bend. Keep an eye on the project’s progress and qualification requirements as they become available.
The Bigger Picture for Bend’s Growth
The Caldera Ranch selection is the first concrete result of SB 1537 in Bend, and it will be watched closely by other Oregon cities considering their own one-time UGB expansions. How smoothly the approval process proceeds, how quickly construction begins, and whether the affordable housing commitments are delivered as promised will all provide data points for future policy decisions.
For Bend specifically, Caldera Ranch is one piece of a larger growth strategy that includes middle housing densification within existing neighborhoods, the Caraway development in NW Bend, and the upcoming 20-year Comprehensive Plan update. Each of these initiatives contributes to the overall housing supply picture. Together, they represent the most active period of housing policy implementation in Bend’s history.
The practical reality is that even with Caldera Ranch, Caraway, and increased infill development, Bend’s housing supply will likely remain tight relative to demand for the foreseeable future. These projects create meaningful supply additions, but they don’t eliminate the fundamental pressure created by strong in-migration and high construction costs.
For a broader view of available homes in Central Oregon and how new developments fit into the market, explore our listings and market data. Our team can help you evaluate whether waiting for Caldera Ranch makes sense for your timeline or whether existing inventory better suits your needs.